It was just time to get down to it. I had been delaying the inevitable, running 100,000 simulations of each and every private school six-man state bracket. For details on how I did this, please read the earlier posts I have written about the public school brackets and other Monte Carlo simulations I have written. This was very similar….

First build the start bracket using this week’s ratings from my website (www.sixmanfootball.com). Then calculate the probability of each first round game and simulate the result. After each round I update the ratings (not 100% like my formula, but a close enough estimation) and continue…. do this 100,000 times and see what happened.

Well, here’s what happened.

TAPPS D1     
TEAMFIRSTQUARTERSSEMISFINALCHAMPION
Boerne Geneva016679334961246637359
Midland Trinity013728457841232928159
Baytown Christian038588259042443211076
Watauga Harvest257251741926487204699900
Rockwall Heritage355353723513252103773601
Sugar Land Logos Prep2463361253864622743194
Houston Emery-Weiner7427595371016947411278
Pasadena First Baptist6446524177616839171273
Abilene Christian45374389521039941691106
Round Rock Christian49480432055492864959
Katy Faith West50520430674867711835
Austin Hill Country546263409276212879782
Waco Vanguard75367220681715372478
TAPPS D2     
TEAMFIRSTQUARTERSSEMISFINALCHAMPION
Waco Live Oak09711163541747156464
Austin Veritas020885346912973514689
Orange Community Christian04691027849182317010
Dallas Tyler Street36085177143438850196794
SA Castle Hills221943829619682140865742
Cedar Park Summit2566066166341624062352
Denton Calvary0690072642823182247
Kerrville Our Lady of the Hills63915132791866319802163
Bulverde Bracken Christian3608849169913644521155
Dallas Lakehill778061479445812204615
Conroe Covenant Christian639122994640611649432
Lubbock Christ The King7434024123751449337
TAPPS D3     
TEAMFIRSTQUARTERSSEMISFINALCHAMPION
Longview Trinity025590270221627931109
Fredericksburg Heritage029268217742577223186
WF Notre Dame036128359681199615908
Fort Worth Covenant Classical11814540542206059126160
Granbury North Central Texas Academy438341587824039102985951
Seguin Lifegate150105803911590100035358
Richardson Canyon Creek Christian4113342480840639514030
San Marcos Hill Country Christian56166144911912668373380
Alvin Living Stones0696312224557392385
WF Wichita Christian5886731930501021522041
Brenham Christian84990126931226805286
Selma River City Believers8818698181534256206
TCAF D1     
TEAMSEMISFINALCHAMPION
Fort Worth Nazarene256453223842117
Wylie Preparatory263853566537950
Dallas Inspired Vision743551528710358
Waco Methodist Childrens Home73615168109575
TCAF D2     
TEAMSEMISFINALCHAMPION
Azle Christian208611645262687
Granbury Cornerstone326984950717795
Weatherford Christian79139760013261
Arlington St. Paul Prep67302264416257
TCAL D1     
TEAMQUARTERSSEMISFINALCHAMPION 
Bryan Allen Academy13402173283993648
SA The Atonement4710423154284921250
Tyler King’s Academy48830498772891004
Greenville Phoenix443022891825840940
EP Faith528962269523532877
Bryan Christian Homeschool (BVCHEA)5117047717255858
Houston Mount Carmel98660233266841
Clear Lake Christian556982523318487582
TCAL D2     
TEAMQUARTERSSEMISFINALCHAMPION
Stephenville Faith215049062489168053
Sugar Land HCYA Fort Bend4188215724954924691
Corpus Christi Annapolis1288364578180014538
Killeen Memorial375625860924641365
SA Sunnybrook62438358601165537
Corpus Christi Abundant Life978506251092433
Corpus Christi WINGS87117113931290200
Lockhart Lighthouse Christian9581224571548183
TAIAO D1     
TEAMQUARTERSSEMISFINALCHAMPION
Tyler HEAT9493283882802934090
SA FEAST Homeschool23317295352049426654
Capital City Christian Home School34148354681542414960
Temple Centex Homeschool3909538257129659683
Fort Worth THESA658522205071024996
Crosby Victory and Praise609052748472284383
Bryan Aggieland Home School (BCAL)766831294761354235
Plano CHANT9050758712623999
TAIAO D2     
TEAMQUARTERSSEMISFINALCHAMPION
Austin NYOS0182282943652336
Bastrop Tribe Consolidated0293894015630455
Waco Parkview1949054627175688315
San Marcos Homeschool217416255985847116
Weatherford Home School78259192131626902
Victoria Home School80510159842630876

Obviously for TCAF, I am moving straight into this week since the first round was played last weekend.

Another thing to notice is that teams like Austin NYOS do not lose in the first round. Why? They got a bye.

The biggest shocker at first glance – the fact that Bryan Allen Academy is such a huge favorite. I expected it to be high, but 93.6% to win it all is a little obscene.

So I hope everyone enjoys this… and remember, no wagering.