Sometimes you just need to slow down and look at the data a little closer.
That was the case last week when I mistakenly posted the wrong side of the New England-Miami line. I mentioned it was probably best to stay away from it all together due to the raw difference being so small, but I also stated the wrong side to take. Oh well. Lesson learned.
Week 15 review – The least-squares method and choosing only those lines where the percentage difference of expected and actual Vegas line over the actual line was greater than 100% went a shocking 4-0. Did I bet it this way? Nope. The three lines between 80-100% went 1-2. In games where the absolute raw was greater than 2.5 went 3-2. Overall, the LS method went an incredible 11-4-1.
Three week totals – Overall the LS method is 27-17-1. It is 11-3 where the percentage expected vs Vegas line is greater than 100% and 13-8 where the absolute raw is greater than 2.5 points.
Week 16 lines and Least Squares
Not a whole lot to look at here, just the Patriots-Ravens game. Is Vegas realizing that LS is hot?
| New England Patriots | Baltimore Ravens | 2.5 | -1.06 | -3.56 | -142% |
The Patriots are getting 2.5 on the road. LS seems to think they should be a 1 point favorite, even on the road. The way the Patriots have played, who knows? Heck, if it weren’t for Justin Tucker (#hookem), the Ravens would have about half as many wins.
Since this week is fairly boring, I will go ahead and list the games where the absolute raw is greater than 2.5 points.
| Dallas Cowboys | Washington Redskins | -3 | -5.87 | -2.87 | 96% |
| Minnesota Vikings | Cincinnati Bengals | 7.5 | 12.55 | 5.05 | 67% |
| Denver Broncos | Houston Texans | -10.5 | -14.71 | -4.21 | 40% |
| Oakland Raiders | San Diego Chargers | 10 | 13.52 | 3.52 | 35% |
| New England Patriots | Baltimore Ravens | 2.5 | -1.06 | -3.56 | -142% |
| Atlanta Falcons | San Francisco 49ers | 13 | 17.53 | 4.53 | 35% |
In order of raw strength, it appears LS prefers: Cincinnati, San Francisco, Denver, New England, San Diego and Dallas. Several big lines there. I think I will likely just stay away… but if I were to do one of my stupid parlays, I’d take New England, Dallas and Cincinnati. That should get you about 6-1 odds, but remember, bet at your own risk.