With the first weekend of the NFL Playoffs completed, it seemed like a good time to catch up on how well the Least Squares Optimization predictions did the past two weeks.
If this is your first time reading about this, please refer to my initial article here.
First, let’s recap the final week of the regular season. Using only the games where the percentage difference between the expected line and the actual lines (from by sportsbook.com when published) was greater than 100%, the predictor went 3-1. In games where the raw absolute value of the expected and actual lines was greater than 2.5, the predictor went 5-3. Overall the predictor went 12-3 (the Bears-Packers game did not have a line sure to the unsure status of Aaron Rodgers.
Regular Season Totals
For the final five weeks of the season, using least squares predictions vs. actual vegas lines, the predictor went 15-4 in games where the percentage difference was greater than 100%, 22-13 in games where the raw absolute value was greater than 2.5 and 47-27-1 overall.
Wild Card Games
That bring us to the playoffs, where only four wild card games were on the slate this past weekend.
| Visitor | Home | Vegas | Exp | Raw Diff | % Diff |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Indianapolis Colts | -1.5 | 1.1 | 2.6 | -173% |
| New Orleans Saints | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | -3.64 | -6.64 | -221% |
| San Diego Chargers | Cincinnati Bengals | 7 | 5.83 | -1.17 | -17% |
| San Francisco 49ers | Green Bay Packers | -3 | -10.11 | -7.11 | 237% |
Reading the tables, the predictions were Indianapolis (+1.5), New Orleans (+3), San Diego (+7) and San Francisco (-3). Of those selections, the games went 3-0-1 overall, 2-0-1 for those where the percentage difference was greater than 100% and 2-0-1 also where the raw difference was greater than 2.5 points.
Of course about half way into that first game, when Kansas City was 28 points ahead of Indianapolis.
Up-to-date Totals
Percentage difference Vegas v Expected: 17-4-1
Raw Difference Greater than 2.5: 24-13-1
Overall: 50-27-2