This is posted on my college tennis website so aptly named, texascollegetennis.com. I decided to post it here as well.. why not, right?
I’m sitting in the middle of exams and term projects looking for ways to relax. What better way than to run a Monte Carlo Simulation of each of the men’s regionals, based on my year-end ratings?
So I ran each regional 50,000 times and you can see the results. One of the more intriguing of course is the Nashville Regional, where I could not really account for the home court (and probably outdoor) advantage the Vanderbilt will have over Columbia. That probably sways things a little, I am guessing in the range of 5-15%.
The first number is how many times each team won the entire regional. The second is their probability of coming out of the regional.
BEST FIRST ROUND MATCH-UPS: The Vanderbilt-Virginia Tech match-up looks good, as do the Oklahoma State-Michigan, Memphis-Drake, South Florida-Florida State, Northwestern-Mississippi, Wake Forest-Louisville, Boise State-USD and Auburn-Harvard. There are a few more, but that’s my quick take.
USC Regional
| University of Southern California | 45307 | 90.614% |
| University of Idaho | 122 | 0.244% |
| Oklahoma State University | 2283 | 4.566% |
| University of Michigan | 2288 | 4.576% |
.
Nashville Regional
| Vanderbilt University | 9815 | 19.630% |
| Virginia Tech | 7818 | 15.636% |
| East Tennessee State University | 1917 | 3.834% |
| Columbia University | 30450 | 60.900% |
.
Austin Regional
| University of Texas | 39580 | 79.160% |
| Marist College | 224 | 0.448% |
| University of Louisiana at Lafayette | 1140 | 2.280% |
| Mississippi State University | 9056 | 18.112% |
.
College Station Regional
| California | 11649 | 23.298% |
| Texas Tech University | 5420 | 10.840% |
| Alcorn State University | 42 | 0.084% |
| Texas A&M University | 32889 | 65.778% |
.
Waco Regional
| Baylor University | 43520 | 87.040% |
| Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 497 | 0.994% |
| Stanford University | 3601 | 7.202% |
| University of Tulsa | 2382 | 4.764% |
.
Champaign Regional
| University of Memphis | 6515 | 13.030% |
| Drake University | 5669 | 11.338% |
| Ball State University | 374 | 0.748% |
| University of Illinois | 37442 | 74.884% |
.
South Bend Regional
| University of Notre Dame | 35693 | 71.386% |
| Univ. of Wisconsin-Green Bay | 381 | 0.762% |
| Northwestern University | 6925 | 13.850% |
| University of Mississippi | 7001 | 14.002% |
.
Charlottesville Regional
| Penn State University | 3489 | 6.978% |
| UNC Wilmington | 636 | 1.272% |
| U.S. Military Academy | 104 | 0.208% |
| University of Virginia | 45771 | 91.542% |
.
Columbus Regional
| Ohio State University | 45064 | 90.128% |
| Bryant University | 72 | 0.144% |
| Wake Forest University | 2384 | 4.768% |
| University of Louisville | 2480 | 4.960% |
.
Gainesville Regional
| University of South Florida | 7877 | 15.754% |
| Florida State University | 7821 | 15.642% |
| St. John’s University | 1541 | 3.082% |
| University of Florida | 32761 | 65.522% |
.
Durham Regional
| Duke University | 35589 | 71.178% |
| Winthrop University | 606 | 1.212% |
| University of Tennessee | 12034 | 24.068% |
| Elon University | 1771 | 3.542% |
.
UCLA Regional
| University of San Diego | 2321 | 4.642% |
| Boise State University | 3591 | 7.182% |
| Cal Poly | 375 | 0.750% |
| UCLA | 43713 | 87.426% |
.
Chapel Hill Regional
| North Carolina | 40147 | 80.294% |
| South Carolina State | 233 | 0.466% |
| University of South Carolina | 8986 | 17.972% |
| George Washington University | 634 | 1.268% |
.
Athens Regional
| North Carolina State | 7642 | 15.284% |
| University of Oregon | 5472 | 10.944% |
| Jacksonville State University | 161 | 0.322% |
| University of Georgia | 36725 | 73.450% |
.
Lexington Regional
| University of Kentucky | 32487 | 64.974% |
| University of Denver | 948 | 1.896% |
| Clemson University | 9801 | 19.602% |
| Purdue University | 6764 | 13.528% |
.
Norman Regional
| Auburn University | 2313 | 4.626% |
| Harvard University | 2361 | 4.722% |
| Montana | 88 | 0.176% |
| University of Oklahoma | 45238 | 90.476% |