Just a quick update on last week’s post where I use Non-Linear Programming methods to predict the NFL lines. Let’s rehash. You can also read the explanation post HERE, where I dive into Non-Linear Programming and the methods involved.
For Week 13 games, the least squares approach went 10-5 overall, 3-1 where the percentage of expected vs. Vegas line was greater than 100% and 6-4 when the absolute raw difference was greater than 2.5.
For week 14, it was not very good overall. It went 6-8, but went 4-2 when the percentage of expected vs. Vegas was greater than 100% and 4-2 when the absolute raw was greater than 2.5. Note: we did this experiment AFTER the Thursday night game.
We had a $5 parlay bet with four games and we went 3-1. Ugh. Should’ve of just bet straight up. Oh well, not as much fun.
Totals for two weeks: 16-13 overall, 7-3 when the percentage of expected vs. Vegas line was greater than 100% and 10-6 when the absolute raw is greater than 2.5.
So that give us a few games to really look at for WEEK 15:
| Seattle Seahawks | New York Giants | -7 | -15.54 | -8.54 | 122% |
| Houston Texans | Indianapolis Colts | 6 | 11.98 | 5.98 | 100% |
| Buffalo Bills | Jacksonville Jaguars | -1 | -3.25 | -2.25 | 225% |
| New England Patriots | Miami Dolphins | -1 | 0.41 | 1.41 | -141% |
It recommends taking Seattle (-7), Indianapolis (-6), Buffalo (-1) and New England (-1). Of course that small difference and line for the NE-MIA game is suspicious, but those are the pure suggestions.
How about this? A Seahawks, Bills, Colts and Bengals parlay. $5->$61.73 and maybe a Bengals, Chiefs, Seahawks parlay, $5->$30.69…
These three games are getting dangerously close to the 100%-zone, so may be considered.
| New York Jets | Carolina Panthers | 11.5 | 22.63 | 11.1 | 97% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Oakland Raiders | -5.5 | -10.9 | -5.4 | 97% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Pittsburgh Steelers | -3 | -5.41 | -2.4 | 80% |
The plays it suggests here are Carolina (-11.5), Kansas City (-5.5) and Cincinnati (-3). I like these as well, but hate huge lines like the Carolina game. We will see. Parlays are a bigger gamble, but more fun.