With the MLB Playoffs beginning this evening, I figured it was time to test my rankings and pull out the old probability calculator. I created the MLB Ratings based on a simple least squares NLP Optimization that I have discussed before.
Oakland at Kansas City
The Royals are in the playoffs for the first time in ages and they get to host a game. Unfortunately, they didn’t seem to have a home field advantage during the regular season, so I am not sure how much this helps (although in reality we can assume it does, at least a little). The numbers say the A’s are the better team by almost 0.7 of a run (per game, for the season). I show them as a 63.5% favorite.
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
These teams appear to be very evenly match. On a neutral field, the Giants look to be a 0.15 run favorite. However, this game is not on a neutral field and Pittsburgh has one of the few home field advantages in the playoffs (if we assume the regular season is any indication). This swing makes the Pirates about a 0.215 run favorite tomorrow night, giving them about a 54.3% chance of winning.
Detroit v. Baltimore
Neither team appears to have a home field advantage, so looking at it straight-up, we find that Baltimore looks to be about a 0.4 run favorite (or 57.9%) per game. In a five-game series, the results look like this:
([0.0747, 0.1297, 0.1501], 0.3545, [0.194, 0.2451, 0.2064], 0.6455)
Overall, Baltimore is 64.6% to win the series. The most likely outcome is a Baltimore 3-1 win (24.5%).
Los Angeles v. St. Louis
With neither team holding a home field advantage, the Dodgers look to be about 0.445 runs (or 58.8%) better than the Cards. The five-game series probabilities are:
([0.2033, 0.2512, 0.207], 0.6615, [0.07, 0.1234, 0.1451], 0.3385)
Los Angeles looks about 66.2% to win the series overall. Again, the highest likelihood for an outcome is a 3-1 Dodger win (25.1%).
I will update the probabilities and try to run a Monte Carlo simulation with the data later in the week after we see who wins the Wild Card games.