For the past few months, I have been applying Least Squares Optimization principals to the NFL in making predictions. The method is fairly well established, simply to do and so far — very effective. (here’s a link to the first article explaining it all)
Up-To-Date Results
In games where the (expected line-actual line)/actual >100%, the line went 15-5 -1 since I started this in week 13 and 2-2 during the playoffs
In games where the absolute value of the (expected-actual)>2.5, it has gone 25-14-1 since week 13 and 3-2 during the playoffs.
In all games the method has gone 53-30-2 since week 13 and 6-4 during the playoffs.
| Visitor | V-Rat | Home | H-Rat | Line | Expected | Diff (raw) | Diff/line |
| Denver Broncos | 31.21 | Seattle Seahawks | 32.67 | -2.5 | 1.45 | 3.95 | -158% |
As you can see, the system expected Denver to be getting points and they are giving them, so all signs point to taking the Seahawks and the points.