Football

Sometimes you just need to slow down and look at the data a little closer. That was the case last week when I mistakenly posted the wrong side of the New England-Miami line. I mentioned it was probably best to stay away from it all together due to the raw difference being so small, but I also stated the wrong side to take. Oh well. Lesson learned. Week 15 review – The least-squares method and choosing only those lines where the percentage difference of expected and actual Vegas line over the actual line was greater than 100% went a shocking 4-0. Did I bet it this way? Nope. The three lines between 80-100% went 1-2. In games where the absolute raw was greater than 2.5 went 3-2. Overall, the LS method went an incredible 11-4-1. ...

Just a quick update on last week’s post where I use Non-Linear Programming methods to predict the NFL lines. Let’s rehash. You can also read the explanation post HERE, where I dive into Non-Linear Programming and the methods involved. For Week 13 games, the least squares approach went 10-5 overall, 3-1 where the percentage of expected vs. Vegas line was greater than 100% and 6-4 when the absolute raw difference was greater than 2.5. ...

We finished classes yesterday, so all that is left for the semester is a homework assignment, three projects and three more exams. I have whittled this away to only needing to complete one last project and study for the exams. But, instead of finishing my database project, which is due Sunday, I elected to take a deeper dive into a classroom example for an exam I had yesterday. ...