Monte Carlo on sixman.guru

100k Simulations of All Texas Private Six-Man Brackets

Wed, 12 Nov 2014 23:44:24 +0000

It was just time to get down to it. I had been delaying the inevitable, running 100,000 simulations of each and every private school six-man state bracket. For details on how I did this, please read the earlier posts I have written about the public school brackets and other Monte Carlo simulations I have written. This was very similar….

First build the start bracket using this week’s ratings from my website (www.sixmanfootball.com). Then calculate the probability of each first round game and simulate the result. After each round I update the ratings (not 100% like my formula, but a close enough estimation) and continue…. do this 100,000 times and see what happened.

East and Throckmorton likely to rule UIL D2 Six-Man Playoffs

Wed, 12 Nov 2014 12:54:56 +0000

After 100,000 simulations, the Throckmorton Greyhounds appear to have a 29.8% chance to win the UIL D2 Six-Man State Championship. The biggest challenge it appears will be the dominance of the East bracket, which won a dominating 80.1% of the time in the simulation.

Yesterday I wrote about how the Crowell Wildcats are a somewhat dominant 33.1% to repeat as the D1 UIL State Six-Man Champions. If you would like to read more details on the methods, I have several posted below.

Crowell Favorite to Win Six-Man Title with 33.1% Win Probability

Tue, 11 Nov 2014 17:20:34 +0000

I have created several Monte Carlo simulations over the past year to try and determine probabilities for various sporting events. This week I decided to tackle the Texas Six-Man state tournament. (I will publish more bracket evaluations as the week goes on)

For the past 21 seasons, I have been producing rankings for six-man football. For those of you who do not know the history, I would fax my rankings to newspapers across the state and several would actually publish them. I eventually put together a newsletter, The Huntress Report, where I would add scores, game stories, stats and schedules to the rankings and mail (or fax) to subscribers. Eventually I moved to a website, where I would update the information a week behind, so that my subscribers would be getting the freshest information first. That all was scrapped in 1999 when I decided to go 100% to the website (www.sixmanfootball.com).

Quick Post on MLB Probabilities (100k Monte Carlo Simulations)

Wed, 01 Oct 2014 23:06:16 +0000

I just did a quick run of 100,000 playoff simulations and wanted to share the quick results. I will try to get some finer detail or maybe look into a few changes, but here are the raw World Series champion results.

Detroit — 4950
Baltimore — 18592
LA Angels — 31876
Kansas City — 9058
Washington — 19768
San Francisco — 4246
St. Louis — 1662
LA Dodgers — 9848

NCAA Men’s DI Tennis Regionals Simulated 50,000 times

Tue, 06 May 2014 12:18:43 +0000

This is posted on my college tennis website so aptly named, texascollegetennis.com. I decided to post it here as well.. why not, right?

I’m sitting in the middle of exams and term projects looking for ways to relax. What better way than to run a Monte Carlo Simulation of each of the men’s regionals, based on my year-end ratings?