Simulation

After 100,000 simulations, the Throckmorton Greyhounds appear to have a 29.8% chance to win the UIL D2 Six-Man State Championship. The biggest challenge it appears will be the dominance of the East bracket, which won a dominating 80.1% of the time in the simulation. Yesterday I wrote about how the Crowell Wildcats are a somewhat dominant 33.1% to repeat as the D1 UIL State Six-Man Champions. If you would like to read more details on the methods, I have several posted below. ...

With the MLB Playoffs beginning this evening, I figured it was time to test my rankings and pull out the old probability calculator. I created the MLB Ratings based on a simple least squares NLP Optimization that I have discussed before. Oakland at Kansas City The Royals are in the playoffs for the first time in ages and they get to host a game. Unfortunately, they didn’t seem to have a home field advantage during the regular season, so I am not sure how much this helps (although in reality we can assume it does, at least a little). The numbers say the A’s are the better team by almost 0.7 of a run (per game, for the season). I show them as a 63.5% favorite. ...

This is posted on my college tennis website so aptly named, texascollegetennis.com. I decided to post it here as well.. why not, right? I’m sitting in the middle of exams and term projects looking for ways to relax. What better way than to run a Monte Carlo Simulation of each of the men’s regionals, based on my year-end ratings? ...