Oakland, Pittsburgh slight favorites in Wild Card probabilities

Tue, 30 Sep 2014 09:37:58 +0000

With the MLB Playoffs beginning this evening, I figured it was time to test my rankings and pull out the old probability calculator. I created the MLB Ratings based on a simple least squares NLP Optimization that I have discussed before.

Oakland at Kansas City

The Royals are in the playoffs for the first time in ages and they get to host a game. Unfortunately, they didn’t seem to have a home field advantage during the regular season, so I am not sure how much this helps (although in reality we can assume it does, at least a little). The numbers say the A’s are the better team by almost 0.7 of a run (per game, for the season). I show them as a 63.5% favorite.

Wild Card on sixman.guru

Oakland, Pittsburgh slight favorites in Wild Card probabilities